Bottlenecks in Human Prehistory

Author : Wahid Ahmad

×

Share this Post:


Scientists believe we separated from our closest relatives—chimpanzees and bonobos—over 6 million years ago. But the species we call Homo sapiens is thought to have first appeared in Africa between 300,000 and 200,000 years ago. Since then, humans have spread all over the world.

About 2.8 million years ago, the first members of our genus Homo appeared in East Africa. Homo habilis, one of the earliest species, lived from roughly 2.4 million years ago to 1.4 million years ago and made simple “Oldowan” stone tools—small flakes and choppers—for cutting and pounding animal carcasses and plant materials.

By about 2 million years ago, a descendant lineage gave rise to Homo erectus in Africa. The oldest securely dated Homo erectus cranium from Drimolen, South Africa, is about 2 million years ago, and by 1.8 million years ago these populations had dispersed into Eurasia (for example, Dmanisi in Georgia at 1.85 million years ago). Homo erectus showed a leap in brain size, fully modern body proportions, and a more sophisticated Acheulean toolset, including large bifacial handaxes.

Over the next million years, Homo erectus diversified regionally. African forms sometimes called Homo ergaster persisted alongside Asian populations (Java Man and Peking Man) well into the Middle Pleistocene. In Africa and Europe, populations gradually evolved larger braincases and more rounded skulls, setting the stage for a new form by about 600 thousand years ago.

That new form, Homo heidelbergensis, is recognized in fossils dating between 600000 and 200000 years ago —most famously the Mauer jaw in Germany and the Kabwe cranium in Zambia (500 to 300 thousand years ago)

Homo heidelbergensis populations built simple shelters, used wooden and stone-tipped spears for hunting, and show evidence of fire use after about 400000 years ago.

By about 400000 years ago, European Homo heidelbergensis gave rise to the Neanderthals, while African Homo heidelbergensis lineages evolved into anatomically modern Homo sapiens around 300000 years ago. The earliest widely accepted Homo sapiens fossils—those from Jebel Irhoud, Morocco—are dated to 300000 years ago, pushing back the origin of our species across much of Africa. Subsequent dispersals and episodes of interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans would further shape the genetic tapestry of all later humans.

Using DNA from people living today, scientists have learned a lot about recent human history—how our ancestors spread across different continents, for example. But we still don’t know much about what happened long before modern humans appeared, during the earlier phases of the human lineage, especially in the Pleistocene period, which lasted from about 2.5 million to 12,000 years ago. This early history is important if we want to fully understand where we came from.

One of the biggest challenges is that ancient DNA from Africa older than Homo sapiens is extremely rare or missing, because it doesn’t preserve well in hot climates. So instead of ancient DNA, scientists try to look for clues in the DNA of people living today.

The DNA of modern humans still carries signals of population changes from the distant past. One of the ways scientists study this is through something called the Site Frequency Spectrum —a tool that looks at how common or rare different mutations are in the DNA of a population. These patterns can tell us how big or small populations were in the past and when they may have gone through big changes, like sudden shrinkage or growth.

Recently, scientists used advanced mathematical modeling on DNA from today’s populations to figure out what likely happened in the past. They uncovered a shocking chapter in our history—a time when the human population dropped to dangerously low numbers. This research shows that our ancestors went through a major population bottleneck in the past, reducing the number of breeding individuals to just around a thousand. That’s an incredibly small number—so small it nearly led to extinction.

They studied change in population size over time by analysing patterns in modern DNA. It doesn’t rely on ancient DNA, instead, it uses

The method was applied to DNA from 10 African and 40 non-African populations, focusing on parts of the genome that aren’t influenced much by natural selection or sequencing errors.

The results showed that this population crash lasted for more than 10000 years and wiped out about 66 per cent of the genetic diversity that would’ve existed otherwise. That loss still affects us today—it shaped the genetic makeup of all modern humans. Interestingly, this bottleneck happened long before the famous “out-of-Africa” migration.

This means African and non-African populations were already starting to diverge, even though they all experienced this ancient genetic squeeze.

During the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition, a severe population bottleneck was detected in all 10 African populations studied but not in any of the 40 non-African populations.

Even though the severe bottleneck wasn’t directly detected in non-African genomes, it still affected their population history. After the bottleneck, the average population size in non-African populations was about 20,000, while it was about 27,000 in African agriculturalist populations—a difference likely caused by the hidden impact of the ancient bottleneck on non-African groups. Because African populations did not leave the continent, their genetic lineages preserved clearer signals of this early bottleneck event.

In a focused analysis of the Yoruba population in Nigeria, it was shown that even a small sample of three individuals could detect the bottleneck. However, in non-African populations, the signal was too weak to detect using standard methods. Non-African populations also experienced the same severe bottleneck between 921,000 and 785,000 years ago, with their population shrinking to around 1,450 breeding individuals—similar to the results from African populations. This confirms that the bottleneck was a shared and critical event in early human history.

To understand the severe population bottleneck better, researchers simulated a gradual population decline starting 1.5 million years ago. The population histories predicted by FitCoal from this simulation were different from the patterns seen in actual human genetic data, which suggests that the real bottleneck was likely a sudden event rather than a slow decline.

The bottleneck lasted about 117,000 years and reduced the human population to roughly 1,280 individuals—comparable to current endangered species. This sharp decline resulted in the loss of about 98.7% of ancestral humans and caused a significant drop—about 65.85%—in today’s genetic diversity. It's possible the population size during the bottleneck was even smaller than estimated due to hidden subgroups and natural fluctuations, which may have also raised the risk of inbreeding and extinction.

Around 930,000 years ago, there was a major drop in human population size, likely caused by drastic climate changes during the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition—also called the “0.9 million years ago event.” During this time, glaciations became longer and harsher, ocean temperatures dropped to their lowest, and droughts and wildlife changes spread across Africa and Eurasia.

The Early to Middle Pleistocene Transition, which occurred roughly between 1.2 million and 0.5 million years ago, marks a profound shift in Earth's climate system. During this period, the dominant pattern of glacial-interglacial cycles transformed significantly. Initially, Earth's glacial cycles followed a relatively regular rhythm of about 41,000 years, largely influenced by variations in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity). However, as the Early to Middle Pleistocene Transition progressed, this pattern gave way to more irregular and extended cycles averaging 100,000 years in duration. This change, despite no major alterations in orbital forcing, suggests the growing influence of internal climate feedback mechanisms.

One of the most notable climatic changes during the Early to Middle Pleistocene Transition was the increased intensity and duration of glacial periods. Ice sheets, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, began to expand more extensively and persist for longer durations. Glacials became much colder, with greater volumes of ice and significantly lower sea levels. In contrast, interglacial periods, although warmer, were relatively brief. This resulted in a higher amplitude of climate fluctuations and a marked asymmetry in glacial cycles—slow accumulation of ice followed by rapid melting events. The climatic system thus became more extreme and less predictable than in the preceding period.

Several factors are believed to have driven these changes. Although orbital variations continued to influence climate, they alone do not explain the shift in periodicity. One key hypothesis involves the dynamics of ice sheets: by the Early to Middle Pleistocene Transition, repeated glaciations had eroded much of the soft regolith (loose soil and sediment) under the ice, exposing bedrock. This made it easier for ice sheets to grow thicker and remain stable for longer periods. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels began to drop more significantly during glacials, enhancing the Earth’s cooling and reducing the climate system’s resilience. This marked a transition toward a climate system more heavily influenced by internal feedbacks and threshold responses.

The Early to Middle Pleistocene Transition also had wide-ranging environmental consequences across different regions. In Africa, the climate became cooler and drier during glacials, leading to the contraction of forests and expansion of savannahs. These shifts are thought to have played a role in hominin evolutionary pressures, encouraging dispersal, behavioral adaptation, and technological development. In Europe and Asia, expanding glaciers and cold-steppe environments reshaped ecosystems and migration patterns of both humans and animals. Meanwhile, marine sediment records show increased ice-rafted debris and stronger contrasts between glacial and interglacial ocean temperatures, indicating broader disruptions in global climate and ocean circulation.

During the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition (about 1.2 to 0.8 Million years ago), Africa’s climate shifted from relatively stable humid conditions to long dry spells punctuated by abrupt wet phases. These fluctuations fragmented dense forests into isolated wooded patches and expanded grasslands and savannas across much of the continent, forcing hominins to navigate a highly heterogeneous environment

Tectonic activity along the East African Rift System continued to reshape the landscape during this interval. As rifting intensified, new lakes and river valleys formed in graben basins, creating corridors for animal and hominin movement but also isolating populations on uplifted rift flanks. This dynamic interplay of extension, volcanism, and subsidence controlled local hydrology and vegetation patterns, further driving habitat fragmentation.

Animal communities responded to these environmental changes by favoring open‑habitat specialists. Forest‑adapted primates and other woodland species declined in many regions, while grassland‑adapted herbivores—antelopes, zebras, and grazing bovids—became more abundant. This faunal turnover, documented in sediment cores from Lake Magadi, coincided with hominin adaptations such as increased mobility and endurance running, enabling early humans like Homo erectus to exploit savanna resources more effectively

Stone‑tool traditions persisted and diversified across Africa during this period. The Acheulean handaxe industry, which originated around 1.7 Million years ago, continued to dominate but exhibited regional variations by 1 Million years ago: toolkits included smaller, more refined handaxes and occasional pointed implements, likely reflecting innovations in butchery and woodworking. Sites such as Olorgesailie show this mix of classic and modified Acheulean forms, suggesting both technological conservatism and experimentation

Hominin anatomy also evolved gradually toward larger braincases and more modern skull shapes. Fossils dated toward the end of the transition display intermediate features between Homo erectus  and later forms often grouped as Homo heidelbergensis. These anatomical intermediates hint at a lineage leading toward Homo sapiens, setting the stage for the emergence of archaic and then anatomically modern humans

Evidence for controlled use of fire and regular shelter use becomes clear in this period. At Wonderwerk Cave in South Africa, microstratigraphic analysis of sediments dated to 1 Million years ago has revealed in‑situ burned bone and ashed plant remains, demonstrating that early Acheulean hominins were using fire inside caves. Alongside this, rock shelters across southern Africa show signs of repeated occupation, suggesting that fire and natural caves were integral to hominin survival in cooler or drier microclimates

This ancient population bottleneck might explain why very few hominin fossils from Africa and Eurasia exist from 950 to 650 thousand years ago. In Africa, only a handful of fossils from this time have been found in places like Ethiopia and Algeria, and they show similarities to Homo heidelbergensis. These fossils differ from Homo antecessor found in Spain, and East Asian fossils from this period belong to Homo erectus, which likely didn’t contribute to modern human ancestry.

Interestingly, during this bottleneck, two ancestral chromosomes are believed to have fused into what is now human chromosome 2—around 900 to 740 thousand years ago. This period may also mark a key speciation event that gave rise to the shared ancestors of modern humans, Neanderthals, and Denisovans, whose divergence happened around 765 to 550 thousand years ago.

After the bottleneck ended, the human population in Africa rapidly grew—about 20 times larger—around 813,000 years ago. The use of fire, with early evidence from Israel around 790,000 years ago, may have helped this recovery. Climate improvements might have also played a role.

During this severe bottleneck the human population was extremely small—just about 1,280 individuals—for roughly 117,000 years. However, many questions remain, like where these people lived, how they survived such difficult conditions, and why the population stayed so small for so long. More research is needed to better understand this crucial period in human evolution.

In a new analysis, researchers took a closer look at the claims and found a few problems. To dig deeper, the researchers ran other population analysis tools to track population changes to the same data they didn’t find any severe bottleneck.

So, what’s the bottom line for all of us? This new analysis suggests that its claim about a human population crash 1 million years ago might not hold up. It’s a reminder that in science, exciting ideas still need to be carefully tested—and the simplest answer is often the best.

If a population bottleneck truly occurred 1 million years ago, we should see its genetic signature in all human populations, including those outside Africa. However, this signal is notably absent in non-African groups. The common explanation—that non-African populations lost these signals due to genetic drift after migrating out of Africa—does not hold up. Mathematical models show that a bottleneck of that magnitude would have left a clear imprint across all human DNA, making its absence in non-Africans a significant red flag.

Next, they looked at newer research that suggests humans didn’t come from one single ancient population. Instead, it looks like there were two or more human groups, living separately for a long time, which eventually came together and mixed. One study suggests these groups split around 1.5 million years ago, and came back together about 300,000 years ago. One of those groups might have gone through a bottleneck—but that’s not the same event.

Researchers have detected a deep split in human ancestry around 1.5 million years ago, which rejoined about 300,000 years ago, coinciding with the emergence of anatomically modern humans.

The ancestral split involved two major lineages, A and B. Lineage A ultimately contributed about 80% of present-day human ancestry, undergoing a significant bottleneck shortly after its formation. Lineage B contributed about 20%, and this introgression is shared by all living humans. While most introgressed material from lineage B seems to have been selected against, certain segments—particularly those associated with neural development and processing—appear to have been retained, suggesting adaptive value.

The findings stand in contrast to earlier models, which also posited deep population structure but suggested continuous gene flow between diverging lineages rather than complete isolation followed by a later admixture. The new analysis supports a pulse model, where A and B remained isolated after their divergence, rejoining around 300 kya.

The evolutionary implications are profound. The two lineages A and B could correspond to archaic Homo species such as Homo erectus or Homo heidelbergensis. Homo erectus appears in the fossil record from about 1.9 million to 0.8 million years ago and was the first hominin to spread beyond Africa. Homo heidelbergensis lived from roughly 600,000 to 300,000 years ago and is often seen as the common ancestor of both modern humans and Neanderthals. It had a larger brain (about 1,200 cm³) and a more vertical forehead than H. erectus. So far, no ancient DNA from either species has been definitively tied to the A or B genetic lineages, making a direct fossil–genome match still out of reach.

The sharp bottleneck in lineage A may reflect a founder event linked to a migration or ecological separation. These findings raise further questions about the direction of gene flow between modern humans and Neanderthals or Denisovans and about which ancestral lineage those archaic hominins were more closely related to. Connecting these genomic insights to the fossil record remains a key challenge in human evolutionary studies.

 

 

Leave a Comment: